Championship predictions: Where Millwall, QPR and Charlton land after a frantic summer

By Aiden

Forty-six games, three London clubs, and a league that chews up predictions for breakfast. That’s the 2025-26 Championship in a sentence. Even so, a fresh round of supercomputer runs has sketched out a first draft of the finish line for Millwall, Queens Park Rangers, and Charlton Athletic—and it’s a mixed picture.

Here’s the headline: Millwall are trending toward a safe mid-table slot with an outside shot at the top six; Charlton are forecast to keep their head above water in the lower half; QPR start on the wrong side of the relegation line and will need a clean, steady run to climb. The model weighs squad strength, recent form, last season’s finish, and betting markets—plus the summer churn that has seen names like Benda, Kelman, and Kamara switch dugouts across the division. It’s a guide, not gospel, but it lines up neatly with what we’ve seen in the opening weeks.

What the model says—and why

The supercomputer runs a repeatable set of season simulations using current team ratings. Those ratings shift with transfers, injuries, manager changes, and market odds. The aim isn’t to be romantic; it’s to be cold and consistent. Which is why it doesn’t overreact to one big win or one ugly loss. It looks at the bigger pattern—how often a team profiles as a top-six side, a mid-table group, or a relegation candidate across thousands of season paths.

On that scale, Millwall land in the solid middle. They roared late last season, nearly nicked the play-offs, and that surge carries weight in the model. Their new campaign already shows the variance that defines them: a sharp win over Sheffield United followed by a heavy defeat to Middlesbrough. That’s a snapshot of a team that can bully opponents at The Den but still needs to smooth out away-day dips and sort patchy spells in front of goal.

Charlton, back in the division via a tense play-off run that finished with a win over Leyton Orient, sit lower—and that’s normal for newly promoted clubs. The jump in quality is real. Their early slate has been a teacher: a narrow loss to a slick Leicester City side, a grinding draw with Bristol City. The Addicks’ model rating reflects two truths—spirit and momentum are there, but they’ll need to adapt fast to the Championship’s speed and depth.

QPR’s number is blunt. They’re pegged near the bottom with another survival fight ahead. The early table has them around 19th, and the data doesn’t ignore history. When a club spends consecutive seasons near the trapdoor, the model needs real, sustained improvement to shift its baseline. Until that arrives—whether through defensive stability, smarter shot profiles, or a reliable source of goals—relegation risk stays firmly on the radar.

Transfers matter because they change a team’s floor and ceiling. Goalkeepers like Steven Benda alter shot-stopping variance, young strikers like Charlie Kelman can raise pressing intensity and attacking depth, and wide forwards named Kamara—there are several in the Championship orbit—add direct running that flips tight matches. Add in the loan market and those thin margins around Christmas, and you can see why the inputs aren’t static. Squad health and depth over winter often decide everything.

That’s the analytical backbone behind the Championship predictions. Here’s how that translates on grass.

Club-by-club outlook

Millwall: The Den still tilts the field. When Millwall lean into their strengths—aggression, tight lines, and quick restarts—they’re a nightmare to play against. Last spring’s late charge wasn’t a fluke; it came from consistent pressing triggers, sharp set-pieces, and a spine that held up under pressure. This season’s task is about turning that into a 46-game habit, not a two-month surge.

Squad-wise, they’ve kept a core that understands the division and added sensible depth. The model nudges them toward mid-table because the underlying numbers last season—chances created, shots conceded in dangerous areas—looked like a sturdy side just short of top-six quality. The path upward is clear: they need one more consistent goal source, and they need the injury list to cooperate. If their forwards convert at league-average or better and the set-piece edge stays sharp, they’re a viable play-off candidate. If those fade, the middle third of the table is more likely.

The early split—beating Sheffield United but taking a heavy thump at Middlesbrough—fits the profile. No panic there, but it underlines the away-day issue. The next step is turning 1-0 leads into routine wins rather than rope-a-dope finales. Keep an eye on game states: Millwall are strong front-runners. If they score first regularly, their season bends upward.

Charlton Athletic: Promotion via the play-offs brings adrenaline, but the Championship tests your oxygen tank. Charlton’s early fixtures have exposed the speed difference—every loose touch gets punished, every second ball matters. What they have going for them is structure and togetherness from that promotion run. You can see it in the way they close space and counter with numbers.

The model marks them as lower-half, survival-first, because new arrivals often need a quarter of a season to settle and because defensive units take time to gel at this level. Charlton’s recruitment has targeted legs and height in key lanes, plus a couple of players who can carry the ball 30 yards under pressure. That’s the right idea. They’ll also lean on set-pieces to bank points in cagey games.

The clean way to 50 points is obvious: home form, disciplined defending in transition, and patience with tight matches. The draws matter as much as the wins in the autumn. The narrow loss to Leicester showed they can live with a parachute club for long spells, and the draw with Bristol City showed resilience when the game got scrappy. If the Addicks keep matches within a goal either way, they’ll take enough from the middle pack to avoid the drop.

Depth will be the swing factor. A winter injury to a key defender or the holding midfielder can tilt a month. That’s where loans and January business come in. Expect Charlton to be active if the table gets wobbly by Christmas.

Queens Park Rangers: The model’s view is harsh, but fair. QPR have been flirting with danger for a while, and the early table position around 19th reflects that. The off-season message from the club has been about getting younger, pressing harder, and cutting out soft goals. That’s the right diagnosis.

What the numbers want to see before they budge: fewer giveaways in the first phase, better defensive spacing on crosses, and a cleaner shot map (more in the box, fewer from the edges). If QPR handle those basics, the outlook shifts fast. If they don’t, they’ll be stuck in tight games where one mistake flips the outcome. Younger forwards like Kelman bring energy and pressing triggers, but someone still needs to hit 10-12 league goals for safety to feel comfortable.

The path to survival is familiar and achievable: make Loftus Road a grind, lean on restarts, and squeeze value out of the loan market. There’s also a psychological piece—string two clean sheets together and the chemistry changes. The model will pick that up inside a month if it sticks.

Across the three clubs, there are common levers that can swing the season. They’re not glamorous, but they move the needle:

• Injuries and return timelines: One hamstring can change a block of six games.
• January window impact: Loans, short-term deals, and a targeted starter can add 6-8 points.
• Set-piece edge: A handful of goals from corners and free-kicks often separate 12th from 18th.
• Game-state management: Protecting 1-0 leads and not chasing lost causes saves energy and points.
• Keeper performance: Above-average shot-stopping over a month can reset a season’s arc.

It’s also worth noting how models move. They’re not stubborn. If Millwall turn chances into goals and defend the box cleanly, their play-off probability rises week by week. If Charlton stitch together four unbeaten and tighten their expected goals against, they’ll drift toward mid-table safety. If QPR finally cut out individual errors and get a steady scorer, their relegation odds will shrink in real time.

Early results support the broad strokes. Millwall’s split week shows why mid-table with upside fits. Charlton’s mixed start aligns with a newcomer adjusting, learning to make the margins break their way. QPR’s sticky opening reflects how hard it is to reverse momentum without a steady base.

One more thing the model can’t see: derby gravity. When these clubs face each other, logic goes out the window. Those points are six-pointers in a very real sense. Millwall’s home edge amplifies under lights; QPR’s crowd can drag them over the line in tight finishes; Charlton’s unity from promotion nights can travel. You can’t quantify that cleanly, but you can feel it on the pitch.

So where are we? Millwall are set up to live in the middle and flirt with the top six if the attack clicks. Charlton’s job is to keep their heads, turn narrow losses into draws, and use the winter window to add punch. QPR need to stack small wins—clean sheets, first goals, no late collapses—until the table stops looking over their shoulder. The supercomputer’s map isn’t destiny, but it’s a useful compass as the miles rack up.

And remember the Championship’s favorite trick: it punishes certainty. A hot fortnight can rewrite a season; a cold month can spark panic. For now, the forecasts track the evidence. By the time the calendar turns, we’ll know which London club bent the curve—and which one has more work to do.